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中外近期油气储采比变化态势及其意义

张?抗?卢泉杰   

  1. 中国石化石油勘探开发研究院
  • 发布日期:2015-05-20
  • 作者简介:张抗(1940-),男,山东费县人,硕士,1981 年毕业于中国科学院研究生院,教授级高级工程师,现从事油气勘察开发、油气和能源发展战略研究工作。地址: 北京市海淀区学院路31 号中国石化石油勘探开发研究院,邮政编码:100083 E-mail:zhangkang.syky@sinopec.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国石油天然气股份有限公司重大科技专项柴达木盆地老区稳产提高采收率技术研究成果(2011E-0306)

Analysis of Recent Changes in Chinese and Foreign Oil and Gas Reserve and Production Ratio

Zhang Kang, Lu Quanjie   

  1. Sinopec Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute
  • Published:2015-05-20

摘要: 储产比是年底剩余可采储量与该年产量的比值,该值常被误解为现有油气还能采多少年,从而得出其即 将枯竭的错误推论。构成储产比的分子和分母都是受多因素影响的变量,仅油气统计范围的变化(如某种非常规油气 计入储产量)就可引起其明显的跃升。世界石油储产比总体呈上升趋势,2013 年为57.6;天然气储产比总体也呈上 升趋势,2004 年达63.1,但2010 年以来略降,近4 年均值为58.3。中国石油储产比在1984 年达到峰值19.5,此后 呈下降趋势,2013 年为12.2;天然气储产比经历大发展初期的攀升,在2002 年达到66.3,此后( 特别是2006 年以来) 呈下降趋势,2013 年为29。总的看来,中国油气储产比低于世界油气储产比,但目前与美国属于同一级别。储产比 过高和过低都不利于油气工业健康发展,资源基础雄厚、并可在短期内调动市场力量投入勘探者,储产比可稍低些。 研究表明,油气作为能源主力的地位至少可持续到21 世纪后期。

Abstract: Reserve and production ratio is the ratio of the yearend remaining recoverable reserve to the annual output. This value is often mistaken for how long the existing reserve can last. The numerator and denominator of the ratio are variables under the influence of many factors. The changes in the oil and gas statistical figures (such as a certain kind of non-conventional oil and gas is included in the reserveproduction ratio) may cause the ratio to rise substantially. Generally speaking, the world oil reserve and production ratio is on the rise. It is 57.5 in 2013. The natural gas reserve and production ratio is also on the rise, reaching 63.1 in 2004, but it has dropped slightly since 2010. The average value is 58.3 in the past four years. Chinas oil reserve and production ratio reached its peak of 19.5 in 1984 and then declined to 12.2 in 2013. The countrys natural gas reserve and production ratio climbed at the initial stage of rapid development, reaching 66.3 in 2002 and then was on the decline (particularly after 2006), reaching 29 in 2013. Generally speaking, China oil and gas reserve and production ratios are lower than the worlds average, belonging the same level as the United States. The healthy oil and gas industrial development may be affected when the reserve and production ration is too high or too low. The reserve and production ratio can be lowered slightly if the resources are abundant with the market forces able to be mobilized for exploration in a short period of time. The study indicates that oil and gas used as main energy can last well into the second half of the 21st century.