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石油探明储量增长趋势预测方法及应用

刘国全 贾 丽 刘娟霞 张绍辉   

  1. 中国石油大港油田公司勘探开发研究院
  • 出版日期:2014-08-15 发布日期:2014-08-15
  • 作者简介:刘国全(1969-),男,河北南皮人,硕士,2001 年毕业于中国石油大学(北京),中国石油大港油田公司高级专家,主要 从事油气勘探科研工作。地址:天津市滨海新区海滨街幸福路中国石油大港油田公司勘探开发研究院,邮政编码:300280。 E-mail:liugquan@petrochina.com.cn

Prediction Method of Proven Oil Reserve Growth Trend and Its Application

Liu Guoquan, Jia Li, Liu Juanxia, Zhang Shaohui   

  1. Exploration & Development Research Institute of PetroChina Dagang Oilfield Company
  • Online:2014-08-15 Published:2014-08-15

摘要: 优选时窗开展统计分析,总结出某油公司控制储量升级的3 个特点,即上报后5 年是实现升级的时间界限; 单块规模200×104t 以上的控制储量是升级的主体;储层物性对控制储量升级具有重要影响。为系统评价控制储量升 级潜力和能力,厘定了升级系数和升级率的概念,并建立了相应的评价参数。以该油公司现有累计石油控制储量为基 础,进行升级评价,对探明储量增长趋势进行了预测。着眼于探区勘探开发已进入中后期和资源有限的现实,探索运 用龚帕兹、哈伯特等数学模型,对未来储量增长趋势和规模进行了预测,经验证,预测误差在7% 以内。综合运用上 述两种方法,明确了该油公司新增探明储量趋势和未来5 年增储规模,为勘探开发战略决策提供了较可靠的依据,具 有一定推广意义。

Abstract: Selecting the time window for statistical analysis, this paper summarizes three characteristics of a certain oil company in upgrading its controlled reserves. The upgrading time is usually five years following submission of the reserves. The controlled reserve of a single block exceeding 200×104t is the backbone for upgrading. The petrophysical properties of a reservoir exert an important influence on upgrading of controlled reserve. The conceptions of upgrading coefficient and upgrading ratio are defined to systematically evaluate upgrading potential and capability of controlled reserve. The related parameters are also established for evaluation. Based on the company’s current accumulated controlled oil reserve, this paper evaluates upgrading and predicts the proven oil reserve growth trend. With respect to the fact that the block is in its middle and late exploration and development stage with a limited reserve, the Gompertz model and Hubbert model are used to predict the future reserve growth trend and the future quantity of reserves. It is confirmed that the error is less than 7 percent. The above-mentioned two methods make clear the trend for the companys newly-additional proven reserve and the quantity of additional reserves in the next five years, providing a reliable basis for formulation of exploration and development strategy. It has great significance to put them into wide application.