Evaluation method and application of oil and gas discovery cost of different exploration categories

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7703.2021.03.008

Abstract

Abstract: A new evaluation method of oil and gas discovery cost based on different categories of exploration is proposed in order to properly reflect the effectiveness of oil and gas exploration, i.e., oil exploratory and natural gas exploration, which can’t be done by traditional methods.This new method covers an evaluation index system of exploration effectiveness, including twelve parameters of six categories based on different exploration categories. Firstly, relationship models of controlled, predicted and proven oil and gas reserves are established, and the weighted reserves sequence is constructed by regression analysis of reserve upgrade rate. Then the weighted discovery cost sequence is established based on the weighted reserves sequence and historical investment data. This method provides a solution for reasonable evaluation of oil and gas discovery cost of different exploration categories and eliminates the influence of fluctuating exploration rhythm and time span and lag of discovery, which can be applied to the fine preparation of exploration plan, and rapidly deploy from the reserves task to investment for different exploration categories, so as to optimally allocate the investment, and provide technical support for decision-making of oil companies at low oil price.

Key words: exploration effectiveness, discovery cost, evaluation method, deployment decision, exploration plan

CLC Number:

TE122.13

Chen Xiaoming, Yang Tao, Liang Kun, Huang Jinliang, Wu Na, Li Zhixin. Evaluation method and application of oil and gas discovery cost of different exploration categories[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2021, 26(3): 88-94.

References

[1] 中国石油勘探开发研究院．全球油气勘探开发形势及油公司动态[M]. 北京：石油工业出版社， 2019. RIPED. Global petroleum E&D trends and company dynamics[M]. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 2019．
[2] 王婧．近期国际石油价格回顾与预测[J]. 国际石油经济，2020,28(5): 109-112. Wang Jing. Recent international oil price review and forecast[J]. Petroleum Economics, 2020,28(5):109-112.
[3] 张抗，张立勤．低油价的分析和对策[J]. 中外能源,2020,25(5):1-11. Zhang Kang, Zhang Liqin. Analysis and countermeasures against low oil price[J]. Sino-Global Energy, 2020,25(5):1-11.
[4] 徐东，芮旭涛，许慧文．低油价周期国际石油公司资产剥离策略分析及借鉴启示[J]. 中国能源，2016,38(12):18-22,41. Xu Dong, Rui Xutao, Xu Huiwen. International oil companies divestiture strategy analysis and reference in low oil price[J]. Energy of China, 2016,38(12):18-22,41.
[5] 侯启军，何海清，李建忠，等．中国石油天然气股份有限公司近期油气勘探进展及前景展望[J]. 中国石油勘探，2018,23(1):1-13. Hou Qijun, He Haiqing, Li Jianzhong, et al . Recent progress and prospect of oil and gas exploration by PetroChina Company Limited[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2018,23(1):1-13.
[6] 李鹭光，何海清，范土芝，等．中国石油油气勘探进展与上游业务发展战略[J]. 中国石油勘探，2020,25(1):1-10. Li Luguang, He Haiqing, Fan Tuzhi, et al . Oil and gas exploration progress and upstream development strategy of CNPC[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2020,25(1):1-10.
[7] 李国欣，郭绪杰，杜金虎，等. 勘探对标管理指标体系模型研究及应用[J]. 中国石油勘探，2019,24(1):7-15. Li Guoxin, Guo Xujie, Du Jinhu, et al . Research and application of the index system model of exploration benchmarking management[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2019,24(1):7-15.
[8] 王越，娄钰，王陆新，等．新形势下稳定我国石油行业发展思考与建议[J]. 石油科技论坛，2020,39(4):16-25. Wang Yue, Lou Yu, Wang Luxin, et al. Thinking and suggestions on how to stabilize China’s oil industrial development under new situation[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2020,39(4):16-25.
[9] 许坤，郑冬冬，林爽．促进中国油气勘探开发对策探讨[J]. 石油科技论坛，2019,38(6): 6-14. Xu Kun, Zheng Dongdong, Lin Shuang. Discussion of countermeasures for promotion of China’s oil and gas exploration and development[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2019,38(6):6-14.
[10] 刘小兵，边海光，汪永华，等．全球油气勘探特点与启示[J]. 石油科技论坛，2019,38(6):43-47. Liu Xiaobing, Bian Haiguang, Wang Yonghua, et al . Characteristics and suggestions of global oil and gas exploration[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2019, 38(6):43-47.
[11] 孙和风，姜雪，沈水荣．国际石油公司油气勘探成效与启示[J]. 国际石油经济，2020,28(3):36-43. Sun Hefeng, Jiang Xue, Shen Shuirong. IOCs’oil and gas exploration effects and enlightenments[J]. International Petroleum Economics, 2020,28(3):36-43.
[12] 石油地质勘探专业标准化委员会．石油天然气勘探效益评价方法： SY/T 6041—1994[S]. 北京：石油工业出版社，1995. Petroleum Geology Exploratory Standardization Technology Committee. Evaluation method of oil and gas exploration benefit: SY/T 6041—1994 [S]. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 1995.
[13] R E Megill, 胡朝元．油气发现的成本计算问题[J]. 国外油气勘探， 1983(3):10-16. R E Megill, Hu Chaoyuan. Cost calculation of oil and gas discovery[J]. Oil and Gas Exploration Abroad, 1983(3):10-16.
[14] 郑德鹏．中外石油公司油气上游成本指标与成本变化对比分析[J]. 国际石油经济，2008(9):33-39,82. Zheng Depeng. Upstream oil and gas cost indicators and changing costs: Chinese and foreign oil companies compared[J]. International Petroleum Economics, 2008(9):33-39,82.
[15] 刘忻蕾，王兆明，史卜庆，等．2018 年全球油气勘探形势分析与启示[J]. 国际石油经济，2019,27(3):23-28. Liu Xinlei, Wang Zhaoming, Shi Buqing, et al . Analysis and enlightenment of global oil and gas exploration in 2018[J]. International Petroleum Economics, 2019,27(3):23-28.
[16] 刘鹏，张厚和，李春荣，等. 中海油与国内外典型石油公司勘探关键指标对标分析[J]. 中外能源，2020,25(2):1-8. Liu Peng, Zhang Houhe, Li Chunrong, et al . Benchmarking analysis of key exploration indexes between CNOOC and typical domestic and foreign oil companies[J]. Sino-Global Energy, 2020,25(2):1-8.
[17] 赵政璋．从勘探实践看地质家的责任[M]. 北京：石油工业出版社， 2012. Zhao Zhengzhang. The Responsibility of geologists from the perspective of exploration practice[M]. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 2012.
[18] 杜金虎．四川盆地二叠—三叠系礁滩天然气勘探[M]. 北京：石油工业出版社，2010. Du Jinhu. Natural gas exploration of Permian-Triassic reef & oolite in Sichuan Baisn[M]. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 2010.