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Liu Guoquan, Jia Li, Liu Juanxia, Zhang Shaohui
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Abstract: Selecting the time window for statistical analysis, this paper summarizes three characteristics of a certain oil company in upgrading its controlled reserves. The upgrading time is usually five years following submission of the reserves. The controlled reserve of a single block exceeding 200×104t is the backbone for upgrading. The petrophysical properties of a reservoir exert an important influence on upgrading of controlled reserve. The conceptions of upgrading coefficient and upgrading ratio are defined to systematically evaluate upgrading potential and capability of controlled reserve. The related parameters are also established for evaluation. Based on the company’s current accumulated controlled oil reserve, this paper evaluates upgrading and predicts the proven oil reserve growth trend. With respect to the fact that the block is in its middle and late exploration and development stage with a limited reserve, the Gompertz model and Hubbert model are used to predict the future reserve growth trend and the future quantity of reserves. It is confirmed that the error is less than 7 percent. The above-mentioned two methods make clear the trend for the company’s newly-additional proven reserve and the quantity of additional reserves in the next five years, providing a reliable basis for formulation of exploration and development strategy. It has great significance to put them into wide application.
Liu Guoquan,Jia Li,Liu Juanxia and Zhang Shaohui. Prediction Method of Proven Oil Reserve Growth Trend and Its Application[J]. .
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URL: http://www.cped.cn/EN/
http://www.cped.cn/EN/Y2014/V19/I4/70