不同勘探类别油气发现成本评价方法及应用

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7703.2021.03.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了有效解决传统油气发现成本评价方法无法确切反映石油预探、天然气勘探等不同类别油气勘探成效的问题，基于不同勘探类别的油气发现成本评价方法被提出。该方法提出了基于不同勘探类别的共有6类12项参数的勘探成效权衡指标体系。通过升级系数回归分析，建立了石油天然气控制储量、预测储量与探明储量的关系模型，构建了勘探权衡储量序列。基于勘探权衡储量序列及投资历史数据，建立勘探权衡发现成本序列。该方法可消除勘探节奏的随机波动和勘探发现的间隔性、滞后性影响，为合理评价各勘探类别油气发现成本提供解决方案。不同勘探类别油气发现成本评价方法可应用于勘探计划的精细编制，按照勘探类别进行从储量任务到投资的快速部署，实现不同类别勘探投资的合理优化配置，为石油公司应对低油价环境提供勘探决策技术支持。

关键词: 勘探成效, 发现成本, 评价方法, 部署决策, 勘探计划

Abstract: A new evaluation method of oil and gas discovery cost based on different categories of exploration is proposed in order to properly reflect the effectiveness of oil and gas exploration, i.e., oil exploratory and natural gas exploration, which can’t be done by traditional methods.This new method covers an evaluation index system of exploration effectiveness, including twelve parameters of six categories based on different exploration categories. Firstly, relationship models of controlled, predicted and proven oil and gas reserves are established, and the weighted reserves sequence is constructed by regression analysis of reserve upgrade rate. Then the weighted discovery cost sequence is established based on the weighted reserves sequence and historical investment data. This method provides a solution for reasonable evaluation of oil and gas discovery cost of different exploration categories and eliminates the influence of fluctuating exploration rhythm and time span and lag of discovery, which can be applied to the fine preparation of exploration plan, and rapidly deploy from the reserves task to investment for different exploration categories, so as to optimally allocate the investment, and provide technical support for decision-making of oil companies at low oil price.

Key words: exploration effectiveness, discovery cost, evaluation method, deployment decision, exploration plan

中图分类号:

TE122.13

陈晓明, 杨涛, 梁坤, 黄金亮, 武娜, 李志欣. 不同勘探类别油气发现成本评价方法及应用[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2021, 26(3): 88-94.

Chen Xiaoming, Yang Tao, Liang Kun, Huang Jinliang, Wu Na, Li Zhixin. Evaluation method and application of oil and gas discovery cost of different exploration categories[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2021, 26(3): 88-94.

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