中国油气探明经济可采储量状况分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7703.2023.01.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 经济可采储量是石油公司的核心资产。通过对比2005年底和2020年底中国累计探明油气储量，展示了各类储量增长态势。运用储量产量增幅、经济采收率、经济储采比、采出程度、采油（气）速度等指标系统分析探明已开发储量的累计特征，揭示了油气探明储量“四降二升”的趋势，指出原油储采比出现“剪刀差”、气层气储量寿命明显下降和增产乏力，提出了国家天然气能源发展的储采比“红线”。分析探明未开发储量状况，指出油气探明未开发储量存在规模大、占比高、增量大、增幅较快、品质较差、开发所需年限过长、储量资产规模大等特点。基于我国探明储量总体趋于劣质化的认识，提出持续加大油气效益勘探、把好经济可采储量新增入口、加快利用探明未开发储量、强化储量动态管理等建议。加强油气探明经济可采储量序列分析，不断深化特征研究，对建立以经济可采储量为核心的储量资产管理体系、夯实中国石油公司可持续发展基础等有重要作用。

关键词: 中国油气, 探明储量, 经济可采储量, 已开发储量, 未开发储量

Abstract: Economic recoverable reserves are the core assets of oil companies. The cumulative proven oil and gas reserves in China at the end of 2005 and 2020 are compared to demonstrate the growth trend of various types of reserves. By applying evaluation indexes such as growth rates of reserves and output, economic recovery factor, economic reserve-production ratio, recovery degree, and oil (gas) recovery rate, the cumulative characteristics of proven developed reserves are systematically analyzed, showing the “four drop and two rise” trend of proven oil and gas reserves, “scissors differential” trend of crude oil reserve-production, and distinctly declined gas reserves life and fatigue increase of gas output, which support to propose the “red line” of reserve-production ratio for national natural gas energy development. The analysis shows that the proven undeveloped oil and gas reserves are characterized by large scale, high proportion, large increment, rapid increase,poor quality, long development life and large reserve assets. Based on the understanding of overall inferior proven reserves in China, it is suggested to emphasize beneficial exploration, control the quality of annually added economic recoverable reserves, accelerate the production of proved undeveloped reserves, and strengthen the dynamic reserve management. In addition, the sequence analysis of proven economic recoverable oil and gas reserves should be strengthened and the research on characteristics should be deepened, which will play an important role in establishing a reserve asset management system with the core of economic recoverable reserves and consolidating the foundation for sustainable development of Chinese oil companies.

中图分类号:

TE121

王永祥, 杨涛, 鞠秀娟, 徐小林, 胡晓春. 中国油气探明经济可采储量状况分析[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2023, 28(1): 26-37.

Wang Yongxiang, Yang Tao, Ju Xiujuan, Xu Xiaolin, Hu Xiaochun. Status of proven economic recoverable oil and gas reserves in China[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2023, 28(1): 26-37.

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