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3种重要的油气资源评价方法及应用对比

郭秋麟1 闫 伟1 高日丽1 陈晓林2 徐京新2   

  1. 1 中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083;2 中国石油大学(北京),北京102249
  • 出版日期:2014-02-15 发布日期:2014-02-15
  • 作者简介:郭秋麟,男,教授级高级工程师,博士,主要从事油气资源评价、盆地评价与数值模拟等研究工作。 E-mail:qlguo@petrochina.com.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技重大专项岩性地层区带、圈闭评价与储层预测技术研究课题部分成果(2011ZX05001);中国石油重大科技专项中国石油第四次油气资源评价部分成果(2014E-050201);中国石油勘探开发研究院创新课题泥页岩、致密砂岩孔隙演化与油气成藏数值模拟部分成果(2011Y005)。

Application and Comparison of Three Petroleum Resource Assessment Methods

Guo Qiulin1, Yan Wei1, Gao Rili1, Chen Xiaolin2, Xu Jingxin2   

  1. 1 PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, Beijing 100083; 2 China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249
  • Online:2014-02-15 Published:2014-02-15

摘要: 中国石油第四次油气资源评价全球油气资源评价与利用研究两个中国石油天然气股份有限公司 重大专项刚刚启动,要求统一评价方法,实现评价结果与国际接轨。为了项目能够更好地开展,有必要解剖重要的油 气资源评价方法,对比它们的应用特点。介绍了简单帕内托分布模型(SP)、左偏右截帕内托分布模型(STP) 和对数 正态发现过程模型(LDP) 的研究进展及各自的特点。提出了有效的关键参数研究方法,即用迭代法确定SP 分布模型 中的最大油藏、油藏分布形态等关键参数,用最小二乘法求取STP 分布模型中的油藏中位数、标准方差和油藏分布 形态等关键参数。例举SP分布模型、STP分布模型和LDP模型的应用过程,总结出它们的适用范围,对比它们在 预测最大油藏(S)、油藏个数(N) 和总资源规模(R) 三方面的结果,得出:在勘探程度较高、资料达到模型要求时, STP 分布模型预测效果最好;在勘探程度较低、资料较少时,SP 分布模型具有优势;LDP 模型应用范围较宽,在中 高勘探程度地区应用有优势。SP 分布模型预测的油藏个数偏多,STP 分布模型预测的最大油藏比较合理,LDP 模型 预测的总资源规模和油藏个数效果较好,预测的最大油藏误差较大。

Abstract: PetroChina has just launched two important projects – 4th PetroChina Oil and Gas Resource Assessment and Study of Global Oil and Gas Resource Assessment and Application. It is required to establish a unified assessment method to link the appraisal results to the international convention. To bring the projects smoothly under way, it is necessary to make an analysis of the oil and gas resource assessment methods and compare their application characteristics. This paper makes briefings about the study progress and characteristics of three methods – the simple Pareto model (SP), the shifted truncated Pareto model (STP) and the lognormal discovery process model (LDP). The research method for effective key parameters is proposed, namely using iteration to determine the largest oil reservoir and distribution of oil reservoirs in SP distribution model and using least squares to obtain the median number of oil reservoirs, standard variance and distribution of oil reservoir in the STP distribution model. The paper also describes the application process of the three above-mentioned models, summarizing their applicable scope and comparing the results of those methods in predicting the largest oil reservoir (S), quantity of oil reservoirs (N) and total resources (R). It is concluded that the prediction results of STD distribution model are good when the exploration degree is high with the data meeting the requirements of the model. The SP distribution model is superior when the exploration degree is low with less data made available. The LDP model has a wide application scope and is superior for the area where the exploration degree is at high and middle levels. The SP model can forecast S and R very well but with an extremely large N; The STP model can forecast S very well, but gives large errors on N and R; The LDP model can forecast N and R very well with a worse estimate of S.