21世纪初中国原油储量、产量构成变化分析及启示

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7703.2019.03.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了深入认识中国的石油生产形势，需要对其储量—产量系统的各构成单元及其变化进行分析，其着重点应是有效经济可采储量及其剩余储量、产量，特别是要关注其中起主导作用的大盆地大油田的状况。研究认为，中国已基本完成了第二轮油气勘探区域展开的目标，剩余经济可采储量和产量开始出现走低。因此不仅需要在老油区挖潜增储上产和降本增效，更重要的是开展新区新领域的战略接替，以确保其生产的持续发展。战略接替的现实指向为：各大盆地的深层、海上的前新生界海相地层、西藏高原、中国北部“中亚陆间区南带”的上古生界。目前除面临油气工作本身的难度外，投资不足和体制改革进展迟滞也带来重大影响。

关键词: 原油, 油气生产形势, 储量-产量系统, 石油的战术和战略接替, 油气体制改革

Abstract: For a deeper understanding of China's oil production situation, it is necessary to investigate the composition of the reserves-production system and its changes, especially the proved developed estimated ultimate recovery (Proved Development EUR) and the corresponding Proved Developed Reserves and production in large oil fields or basins. The study results indicate that China has almost achieved the goal of the second round of oil and gas exploration, and the Proved Developed Reserves and production began declining. To keep sustainable and stable production, it is necessary to tap the potential of old oilfields, and more importantly, to find strategic replacement in new areas. Such new areas include deep strata in large basins, offshore Pre-Cenozoic marine strata, the Tibetan Plateau, and the Upper Paleozoic of the "Southern Intercontinental Zone of Central Asia" in northern China. In addition to technical challenges, oil and gas exploration and production are currently suffering the impacts from insufficient investment and slow progress in institutional reforms.

Key words: crude oil, oil and gas production situation, reserves-production system, oil tactic and strategic replacement, institutional reform

中图分类号:

张抗, 张立勤. 21世纪初中国原油储量、产量构成变化分析及启示[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2019, 24(3): 280-296.

Zhang Kang, Zhang Liqin. The analysis on the composition changes of China's crude oil reserves and production in early 21^th century and its enlightenment[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2019, 24(3): 280-296.

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