北美后页岩革命时代带来的启示

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7703.2022.01.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 2014年国际油价暴跌并持续低位运行，2016年开始北美迎来了主要从事页岩油气开发能源公司的倒闭潮。2020年6月28日美国页岩油气开发先导者Chesapeake能源公司宣布破产保护，引起了全球能源行业的高度关注。业界议论更多的是页岩油气开发能否可持续发展，甚至有人认为北美页岩油气开发可能是新的旁氏骗局。通过总结美国页岩革命的兴起、发展、成果、社会效益及其成功的原因，从多个维度对低油价导致的美国页岩油气危机进行分析，对比Chesapeake 能源公司和EOG能源公司两家典型的主要从事页岩油气开发公司截然不同的发展路径和结果，总结得出当前低油价环境下页岩油气得以持续开发的基本条件为：拥有良好的油气资产，具备自身成本控制和盈利能力，保证现金流为正，控制投资风险，力图对国内非常规油气发展有一定的启示。

关键词: 非常规油气发展, 美国页岩革命, 页岩危机, 页岩可持续发展, Chesapeake, EOG

Abstract: The international oil price plummeted in 2014 and continued to operate at a low level. Since 2016, North America energy companies mainly engaged in shale oil and gas development have ushered in the bankruptcies. On June 28, 2020, Chesapeake Energy Company, the leader of shale oil and gas development in the United States, announced bankruptcy protection, attracting great attention of the global energy industry. The industry concerns more about whether shale oil and gas development can be sustainable, and some even regard that shale oil and gas development in North America may be a new Ponzi scheme. By summarizing the rise, development, achievements, social benefits and the reasons for the success of the American shale revolution, the shale oil and gas crisis in North America are analyzed from multiple factors which is caused by low oil prices, and the development paths and results of Chesapeake and EOG, the two typical energy companies mainly engaged in shale oil and gas development in North America are compared. Finally, the basic conditions for the sustainable development of shale oil and gas under the current low oil price environment are summarized, including high-quality oil and gas assets, cost control and profitability, positive cash flow, and investment risk control, so as to provide some enlightenment for the development of unconventional oil and gas in China.

中图分类号:

TE122.1

张福祥, 李国欣, 郑新权, 吴奇, 李志斌, Qi Zhang, 王久涛, 张玲毓. 北美后页岩革命时代带来的启示[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2022, 27(1): 26-39.

Zhang Fuxiang, Li Guoxin, Zheng Xinquan, Wu Qi, Li Zhibin, Qi Zhang, Wang Jiutao, Zhang Lingyu. Enlightenment from the post shale revolution era in North America[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2022, 27(1): 26-39.

参考文献

[1] Hughes J D. Energy: a reality check on the shale revolution[J]. Nature, 2013,494(7437):307-308.
[2] Mine Yücel, Michael D Plante. GDP gain realized in shale boom’s first 10 years [EB/OL].（2019-08-20）. https://www. dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/0820.
[3] U.S. Energy Information Administration. The United States is now the largest global crude oil producer[EB/OL]. （2018- 0 9 - 1 2）. h t t p s : / /www. e i a . g o v / t o d a y i n e n e r g y / d e t a i l . php?id=37053.
[4] Manescu C B， Nuno G. Quantitative effects of the shale oil revolution[J]. Energy Policy, 2015,86:855-866.
[5] U.S. Energy Information Administration. Monthly Energy Review[EB/OL].（2021-03-25）. https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/archive/00352103.pdf.
[6] U.S. Energy Information Administration. In 2020, U.S. natural gas prices were the lowest in decades [EB/OL].（2021- 0 1 - 07）. h t t p s : / /www. e i a . g o v / t o d a y i n e n e r g y / d e t a i l . php?id=46376.
[7] U.S. Energy Information Administration. What drives crude oil prices?[EB/OL]. (2021-10-20). https://www.eia.gov/finance/ markets/crudeoil/spot_prices.php.
[8] Salisu A A, Adediran I A. The US shale oil revolution and the behavior of commodity prices[J]. Econometric Research in Finance, 2018,3(1):27-53.
[9] Monge M, Gil-Alana L A， de Gracia F P. US shale oil production and WTI prices behaviour[J]. Energy, 2017,141: 12-19.
[10] Hefner III R A. The United States of gas: why the shale revolution could have happened only in America[J]. Foreign Affairs, 2014,93(3):9-14.
[11] Bataa E, Park C. Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution? [J]. Energy Economics, 2017,67:72-82.
[12] Kilian L. The impact of the shale oil revolution on US oil and gasoline prices[J]. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2016,10(2):185-205.
[13] Aguilera R F, Radetzki M. The shale revolution: global gas and oil markets under transformation[J]. Mineral Economics, 2014,26(3):75-84.
[14] Salmon S. Booms and busts: preserving mother nature while staring into the abyss of bankruptcy[J]. Texas Tech Administrative Law Journal, 2014,16:465.
[15] Miller Jeff, Evans Lesley, Keith Yankowsky. Unconventional Resources - Chesapeake’s Integrated Workflow[C]. SPE/ AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, 2013.
[16] 李志欣，王坤，刘婧瑶. 美国切萨皮克能源公司破产重组原因分析与启示[J]. 石油科技论坛，2020,39(6):62-67.
Li Zhixin, Wang Kun, Liu Jingyao. Analysis of reasons for US Chesapeake Energy Corporation’s bankruptcy and restructuring[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2020,39(6):62-67.
[17] Weijermars Ruud, Steve Watson. Unconventional—natural— gas business: TSR benchmark and recommendations for prudent management of shareholder value[J]. SPE Economics & Management, 2011,3(4):247-261.
[18] Jacobs Trent. Shale EOR delivers, so why won’t the sector go big?[J].Journal of Petroleum Technology, 2019,71(5):37-41.
[19] Rassenfoss Stephen, Whitfield Stephen, Trent Jacobs. Unconventional resources technology conference highlights shale as an international business[J]. Journal of Petroleum Technology, 2017,69(9):46-57.
[20] Donnelly John. Comments: shale enters a new phase[J]. Journal of Petroleum Technology, 2019,71(12):12.
[21] 赵文智，贾爱林，位云生，等. 中国页岩气勘探开发进展及发展展望[J]. 中国石油勘探，2020,25(1):31-44.
Zhao Wenzhi, Jia Ailin, Wei Yunsheng, et al . Progress in shale gas exploration in China and prospects for future development[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2020,25(1):31-44.
[22] 杜燕，刘超，高潮，等. 鄂尔多斯盆地延长探区陆相页岩气勘探开发进展、挑战与展望[J]. 中国石油勘探，2020,25(2):33-42.
Du Yan, Liu Chao, Gao Chao, et al . Progress, challenges and prospects for continental shale gas exploration and development in the Yanchang exploration area of the Ordos Basin[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2020,25(2):33-42.
[23] 邹才能，赵群，丛连铸，等. 中国页岩气开发进展、潜力及前景[J]. 天然气工业,2021,41(1):1-14.
Zou Caineng, Zhao Qun, Cong Lianzhu, et al . Development progress, potential and prospect of shale gas in China[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2021,41(1):1-14.
[24] 孙焕泉，周德华，蔡勋育，等. 中国石化页岩气发展现状与趋势[J]. 中国石油勘探，2020,25(2):14-26.
Sun Huanquan, Zhou Dehua, Cai Xunyu, et al . Progress and prospects in shale gas development of Sinopec[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2020,25(2):14-26.
[25] 李国欣，覃建华，鲜成钢，等. 致密砾岩油田高效开发理论认识、关键技术与实践：以准噶尔盆地玛湖油田为例[J]. 石油勘探与开发， 2020,47(6):1185-1197.
Li Guoxin, Qin Jianhua, Xian Chenggang, et al . Theoretical understandings, key technologies and practices of tight conglomerate oilfield efficient development: a case study of the Mahu oilfield, Junggar Basin, NW China[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2020,47(6):1185-1197.
[26] 李国欣，朱如凯. 中国石油非常规油气发展现状、挑战与关注问题[J]. 中国石油勘探，2020,25(2):1-13.
Li Guoxin, Zhu Rukai. Progress, challenges and key issues in the unconventional oil and gas development of CNPC[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2020,25(2):1-13.
[27] 唐玮，梁坤，冯金德，等. 低油价下美国页岩油困境对我国油田勘探开发的启示[J]. 石油科技论坛，2020,39(4):26-30.
Tang Wei, Liang Kun, Feng Jinde, et al . Enlightenment from dilemma of US shale oil development under low oil prices[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2020,39(4):26-30.