中国石油勘探 ›› 2022, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (6): 98-109.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-7703.2022.06.011

• 勘探案例 • 上一篇    下一篇

重点国家碳排放历史趋势、碳中和政策特征及合作建议

王子健1,白福高2,闫伟1,徐金忠2,何欣1   

  1. 1中国石油勘探开发研究院;2 中国石油勘探开发有限公司
  • 出版日期:2022-11-15 发布日期:2022-11-15
  • 作者简介:王子健(1988-),女,河北唐山人,硕士,2014年毕业于中国石油大学(北京),工程师,现主要从事油气战略研究及资源国投资环境评价方面工作。地址:北京市海淀区学院路20号中国石油勘探开发研究院开发战略规划研究所,邮政编码:100083。
  • 基金资助:
    中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与科技开发项目“国际主要油气公司能源转型与数字化发展关键技术研究” (2021DQ0105-05)。

Carbon emission trend and carbon neutrality policy characteristics of key countries and cooperation suggestions

Wang Zijian1,Bai Fugao2,Yan Wei1, Xu Jinzhong2,He Xin1   

  1. 1 PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development; 2 PetroChina Exploration & Production Company
  • Online:2022-11-15 Published:2022-11-15

摘要: 文章将重点国家分为经济增长—能源消费驱动型、能源生产驱动型、经济增长—能源生产/消费驱动型3类,回顾了重点国家碳排放历史趋势,分析了其发展特征。其中,经济增长—能源消费驱动型国家碳排放趋势符合倒“U”形环境库兹涅茨曲线特征;能源生产驱动型国家能源生产与碳排放趋势呈现“双高”正相关关系;经济增长—能源生产/消费驱动型国家碳排放趋势表现出“L”形和倒“L”形两种特点。梳理了不同驱动因素下,欧盟、各大区油气资源国、美国的碳中和政策特征分为引领型、跟随性、自主型3类,并对其碳中和政策要点进行解读。在此基础上建议妥善处理经济复苏与低碳发展的关系,实现低碳发展政策工具多元化;加大气候转型政策与市场研究,提出应对资源国政策调整的预备方案;加强同油气生产国、消费国、碳排大国等沟通,搭建国家及行业低碳发展对话平台。

关键词: 碳排放, 碳中和, 欧美国家, 油气资源国, 政策特征

Abstract: The major countries are classified into three types of economic growth-energy consumption driven type, energy production driven type, and economic growth-energy production/consumption driven type. Then the carbon emission history is reviewed and the development characteristics are analyzed of these countries. Among them, the carbon emission trend of economic growth-energy consumption driven type countries conforms to the inverted “U” shaped environmental Kuznets curve. The energy production and carbon emission show a “double high” positive correlation of energy production driven type countries. While the carbon emission trend of economic growth-energy production/consumption driven type countries is characterized by “L” shape and inverted “L” shape curves. Driven by various factors, the carbon neutrality policies of the European Union, resource countries in various regions, and the United States are categorized into three types of leading, following and independent types, and the key policies are interpreted in detail. On this basis, it is suggested to properly handle the relationship between economic recovery and low-carbon development, diversify low-carbon development policies, strengthen research on climate transition policies and market, and put forward preparatory plans to cope with the policy adjustment of resource countries. On the other hand, communication with energy production countries, energy consumption countries, and major carbon emission countries should be strengthened, and dialogue platforms for low-carbon development at international and industrial levels should be built.

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