油气探矿权竞争性出让区块快速评价方法研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7703.2024.02.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 油气探矿权竞争性出让是油气企业获取探矿权的重要途径。探矿权竞争性出让具有研究资料有限、研究程度低和评价周期短的特点。科学制定竞价方案的难点在于如何在短期内对出让区块的勘探潜力、资源规模和经济性作出全面快速准确的评价，目前尚未形成系统的评价方法。前期研究表明，优选合理的评价参数、建立合理的参数赋值标准是出让区块快速评价的关键，综合定量评价的结果是出让区块快速评价的核心。基于已出让区块资料条件和竞价规则，提出资料条件、地质条件（区带勘探潜力、烃源岩、储层、保存、圈闭、成藏配置）、资源量可靠性及工程技术等9类评价因素、18个评价参数及其赋值标准，建立了竞争性出让区块快速评价的参数体系。同时提出对竞争性出让区块勘探潜力、勘探风险和工程技术开展综合定量评价的油气勘探成功概率法，以及经济性评价的折现现金流法和类比法，从而为出让区块的竞价方案制定提供依据。将上述方法应用于部分已出让区块，所得出的竞价方案与实际竞价情况基本一致。

关键词: 油气探矿权, 竞争性出让, 快速评价, 勘探潜力评价, 经济评价

Abstract: The competitive transfer of oil and gas exploration rights is an important way for oil and gas enterprises to obtain exploration rights blocks, and the evaluation process is characterized by limited data, low level of study and short period. The difficulty in scientifically formulating bidding plans lies in how to comprehensively, rapidly, and accurately evaluate the exploration potential, resource scale, and development economy of transfer blocks in a short term. However, there is a lack of the systematic evaluation method at present. The early study results have shown that the key to the rapid evaluation of competitive transfer blocks includes the optimal selection of rational evaluation parameters and the establishment of parameter standards, and the core of the rapid evaluation of transfer blocks is the comprehensive and quantitative evaluation results. Based on data status and bidding policy of the transfer blocks, nine types of evaluation factors, including data conditions, geological conditions (exploration potential in the region, source rock, reservoir, preservation, trap, and hydrocarbon accumulation assemblage), reliability of resource amount and engineering technology, as well as 18 evaluation parameters and their assignment standards have been proposed, and a rapid evaluation system for competitive transfer blocks has been established. In addition, the petroleum exploration successful probability method has been proposed for comprehensive and quantitative evaluation of exploration potential, exploration risk and engineering technology, as well as the discounted cash flow method and analogy method for economic evaluation, which provide basis for the formulation of bidding plans of transfer blocks. The above method has been applied in some transferred blocks, obtaining bidding plans basically consistent with the actual bidding situation.

中图分类号:

TE11

郭沫贞, 刘军平, 倪新锋, 王玉山, 张颖, 王晓星, 吴培红, 周鹏. 油气探矿权竞争性出让区块快速评价方法研究[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2024, 29(2): 134-146.

Guo Mozhen, Liu Junping, Ni Xinfeng, Wang Yushan, Zhang Ying, Wang Xiaoxing, Wu Peihong, Zhou Peng. Study on rapid evaluation method for competitive transfer oil and gas exploration rights blocks[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2024, 29(2): 134-146.

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