中国石油勘探 ›› 2010, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (3): 59-66,8.

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海外油气勘探开发风险管理与控制及投资评价方法

姜培海,肖志波,马学立,赵红岩,王思聪   

  • 出版日期:2010-06-15 发布日期:2010-06-15
  • 基金资助:
    中海油“海外勘探项目识别及勘探战略研究”(2008-HW-01)

RiskManagement and Control and Investment Appraisal of Overseas Petroleum Exploration and Development

Jiang Peihai,Xiao Zhibo,Ma Xueli,Zhao Hongyan and Wang Sicong   

  1. Jiang Peihai,Xiao Zhibo,Ma Xueli,Zhao Hongyan,Wang Sicong CNOOC Research Center,Beijing 100027
  • Online:2010-06-15 Published:2010-06-15

摘要: 海外油气勘探开发国内尚未系统开展全球油气地质综合研究以及相关评价工作,而且不同于国内勘探开发可以借鉴历史积累的经验和教训。需要对资源国进行全方位了解,需要多学科、多专业,地质和非地质工种协同进行严密、严格的可行性研究。不但要严格评价油气资源潜力,而且需要认真评价石油商业风险、社会经济风险、政治风险和竞争性风险。在风险识别和分类的基础上,建立了风险管理与控制及全球油气勘探开发风险评价与项目优选流程。提出评价本身就存在风险,需要克服诱惑、过度自信、过分保守等7种主观因素的影响。通过对投资环境评价指标进行全面分析,提出了既能把握风险投资时机,又可以获得商业发现和经济效益的综合风险因子投资评价概念与方法。

关键词: 海外, 油气勘探开发, 风险识别, 风险管理与控制, 投资评价, 流程与方法

Abstract: Comprehensive study of global oil and gas geology and related evaluation have not yet been systematically launched in China. Overseas petroleum exploration and development has nothing to refer to, as compared to domestic petroleum exploration and development which can learn from historical experience and lessons. In order to carry out overseas petroleum exploration and development, it is required to have an all-round understanding of resource countries, to conduct a rigorous feasibility study combining different disciplines, geological and non-geological work. In addition to the rigorous appraisal of petroleum resource potential, earnest appraisal of petroleum business risk, socio-economic risk, political risk and competitive risk need to be taken into account. On the basis of risk identification and classification, a whole process of risk management and control as well as global petroleum exploration and development risk evaluation and project optimization is established. It is put forward that appraisal has risk of its own, and it is necessary to overcome the effect of seven subjective factors including seduction, overconfidence, and overly conservation, etc. Through thorough analysis of investment environment appraisal indexes, the concept and method of comprehensive investment appraisal based on considering all risk factors are proposed, which can not only help master the opportunity of risk investment, but can also aid obtaining commercial discovery and economic results

Key words: overseas, petroleum exploration and development, risk identification, risk management and control, investment appraisal, process and method

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