海外钻探目标综合评价指标体系研究与应用

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7703.2020.04.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 2014 年下半年以来，国际油价长期低位徘徊，如何制定不同油价下的勘探部署方案、实现效益勘探是油公司勘探面临的首要问题。在调研国内外钻探目标综合评价方法的基础上，结合中国石油天然气集团有限公司（简称中国石油）海外油气勘探实践，提出一种基于目标的地质风险、经济价值、资源可转换性与战略因素为一体的钻探目标综合评价优选指标体系，对上述4 个方面11 项指标分别赋予权重开展定量化评价。在建立综合评价指标基础上，提出了意向目标收集、目标初步筛选和目标综合排队三步走的评价流程，实现了不同油价下多目标的排队与部署优化。 2016 年以来，中国石油海外油气勘探应用该评价指标体系和流程，每年开展两轮全球钻探目标综合排队与部署优化，提出了差异化部署方案，应用效果成效显著，具有一定的推广价值。

关键词: 目标评价, 地质风险, 经济价值, 资源可转换性, 决策部署

Abstract:

Since the second half of 2014, the international oil price has been hovering at a low level. In these circumstances, the primary issues faced by oil companies are how to make exploration deployment plans under conditions of variable oil prices, and how to achieve benefit exploration. Based on investigation of the comprehensive evaluation methods of prospects at home and abroad, combined with the practices of the overseas oil and gas exploration of CNPC, a comprehensive evaluation and ranking method has been proposed for exploration prospects based on geological risk, economic value, resource exploitability, and strategic factors affecting the prospects. Eleven indices of these four aspects have been weighted for quantitative evaluation. Based on the establishment of a comprehensive evaluation index, a three-step evaluation procedure is proposed: candidate collection, preliminary screening, and comprehensive ranking. This approach supports multi-prospect ranking and deployment optimization under a variety of oil prices. Since 2016, CNPC overseas oil and gas exploration has applied this evaluation index system and procedures to carry out two rounds of comprehensive ranking and deployment optimization for global prospects every year, and to put forward differentiated deployment plans. The application effect has been remarkable, showing that the evaluation index system is of considerable value in promoting effective exploration.

中图分类号:

李志, 计智锋, 李富恒, 杨紫, 马洪, 王林. 海外钻探目标综合评价指标体系研究与应用[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2020, 25(4): 11-21.

Li Zhi, Ji Zhifeng, Li Fuheng, Yang Zi, Ma Hong, Wang Lin. Research and application of a comprehensive evaluation index system for overseas prospects[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2020, 25(4): 11-21.

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