关键词: 探明储量, 增长预测, 勘探潜力, 区带, 准噶尔盆地

Abstract: The growth trend of proved oil reserves in key zones (northwestern margin, hinterland, and eastern part) of Junggar Basin was predicted for the first time, using òthe system for predicting oil and gas reserves growthó (HCZ model). The northwestern margin has the longest exploration history and the highest proved degree, of which the reserves growth peak was in 1992 with corresponding proved ratio being 31.3%. Till 2055, the proved ratio will reach 76.4%, and now the zone is at the late stage of reserves growth peak. Hinterland and eastern part have shorter history, which started submitting proved reserves in 1995 and 1987 respectively. Till 2010, the proved ratios of both zones were 11.2% and 13.4% separately. They were both at early stage of exploration, and reserves growth peak will show in 2023 and 2025, with respective proved ratio being 23.76% and 28.32%. The proved ratios will reach 61.2% and 68.77% till 2094 and 2086 separately. Based on reserves growth prediction, this paper analyzed the exploration potential and prospect of above zones in terms of resources exploration status, factors influencing reserves growth, and reservation conditions of traps, etc. It was regarded that the northwestern margin has entered into high-maturity stage of exploration, and it would approximate the peak of reserves growth by the end of the ò12th Five-Year Planóperiod. Meanwhile, the hinterland and the eastern part will show a new round of reserves growth trend, both of which will counteract the descending trend of the northwestern margin and keep stable growth of reserves in the Basin

Key words: proved reserves, growth prediction, exploration potential, zone, Junggar Basin