新时代我国油气勘探开发战略格局与2035年展望

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7703.2021.03.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 2000年以来，我国油气勘探开发工作取得了长足进步，天然气获得了快速发展、非常规油气实现了规模开发、陆上西部和海域油气增储上产水平进一步提升，以上4个领域大发展使我国油气勘探开发战略格局发生了显著变化，新时代基本形成了“油气并举”“常非并进”“东西联动”和“陆海统筹”的油气勘探开发战略新格局。基于不同勘探阶段储量发现规律和生命旋回等多种方法获得的储量、产量预测数据的初步判断，2035年以前，中国现有油气勘探开发格局将愈加凸显并有望实现“三大超越”，即天然气产量（油当量）将超过石油、非常规天然气产量增量将超过常规气、陆上西部和海域石油产量将先后超过东部地区。其中，我国石油年产量将在较长时期内稳定在2×10⁸t左右，有望形成东部、西部和海域“三足鼎立”的石油勘探开发格局；天然气年产量继续保持较快增长，可达3100×10⁸m³左右，将进一步确立“西部为主，海域和东部补充”的天然气勘探开发格局。建议强化国家“稳油增气”战略，大力发展天然气，加快向绿色低碳能源转型；加大对页岩油气、煤层气等非常规资源的政策支持力度，促进规模效益开发；加强陆上西部深层和海域深水等新领域风险勘探和技术攻关，为2035年我国基本实现现代化远景目标提供强有力的油气安全保障。

关键词: 油气, 勘探开发, 新增储量, 战略格局, 发展展望

Abstract: Since 2000, great progress has been made in China’s oil and gas exploration and development with rapid development of natural gas, large-scale development of unconventional oil and gas, and further improvement of oil and gas reserves and production increase in the onshore western region and offshore areas, basically forming a new pattern of oil and gas exploration and development strategy of “simultaneous development of oil and gas”, “promotion both conventional and unconventional resources”, “linkage between the eastern and western regions”and “overall planning of onshore and offshore areas”. The preliminary judgment of reserves and production forecast data by various methods such as reserve discovery law and life cycle in different exploration stages, suggests that the existing pattern of oil and gas exploration and development will be more prominent before 2035, which is expected to achieve “three surpassing”, that is, natural gas production (oil equivalent) will surpass oil production, increment of unconventional gas production will surpass that of conventional gas, and oil production in the onshore western region and offshore areas will surpass that in the eastern region. For oil exploration, the annual production will be stable at 2×108t for a long period, and a new pattern of “three pillars” of the eastern region, western region and offshore areas be formed. While for natural gas exploration, the annual production continues to maintain a rapid growth, reaching 3100×108m3, and a new pattern of “mainly in the western region, supplemented by offshore areas and the eastern region” be further established. At the level of government policy, following suggestions are put forward: (1) Strengthen the strategy of “stabilizing oil and increasing gas production”, vigorously develop natural gas,and accelerate the transformation to green and low-carbon energy; (2) Increase policy support for unconventional resources such as shale oil and gas, coal-bed gas, etc., and promote large-scale benefit development; (3) Strengthen risk exploration and technological research on deep formation of onshore western region and deep water areas, so as to provide a strong domestic oil and gas supply security for basically realizing the goal of modernization by 2035.

Key words: oil and gas, exploration and development, newly increase reserve, strategic pattern, development prospect

中图分类号:

TE132

门相勇, 王陆新, 王越, 娄钰, 郭威. 新时代我国油气勘探开发战略格局与2035年展望[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2021, 26(3): 1-8.

Men Xiangyong, Wang Luxin, Wang Yue, Lou Yu, Guo Wei. Strategic pattern of China’s oil and gas exploration and development in the new era and prospects for 2035[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2021, 26(3): 1-8.

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