页岩气产量递减典型曲线模型及对比研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高利用典型曲线方法预测页岩气产量的准确性，指导和优化开发方案设计，进行了页岩气产量递减典型曲线模型的总结和分析。页岩气产量递减典型曲线模型主要包括：基于Arps典型曲线双曲递减曲线、指数递减曲线和调和递减曲线模型、修改的双曲递减模型、幂律指数模型、混合典型曲线模型和Duong模型等，在阐述每种模型的原理、优缺点基础上，以实际页岩气井为研究对象，对比分析不同典型模型预测结果差异，提出典型曲线模型存在的问题及其发展建议。研究表明，就预测同样生产时间段内的最终可采储量而言，双曲递减模型的预测结果最高，其他模型预测结果需根据流体及储层情况进一步论证。典型曲线模型理论及应用仍旧存在一些问题，需要加强典型曲线基础理论研究。建议采用概率分析方法，给出典型曲线的概率分布范围，正确评价产量风险。

关键词: 页岩气, 产量递减, 典型曲线, 模型, 产能评价

Abstract: In order to predict the shale gas production more accurately by typical curves and thereby to instruct and optimize the development program design, the shale gas production decline typical curve models were reviewed. These models include Arps typical curve models (incl. hyperbolic decline curve, exponential decline curve and harmonic decline curve), modified hyperbolic decline model, power law exponent model, hybrid model, and Duong’s model. These models were separately elaborated from the aspects of principles, advantages and disadvantages. These models were compared based on the data of a shale gas well. Results show that the ultimate recoverable reserves (EUR) predicted by hyperbolic decline model is the largest among the models, but the prediction results of other models should be further demonstrated depending on fluid and reservoir characteristics. With consideration to certain defects in the models revealed by the study, it is suggested to strengthen the researches on basic theories. Moreover, the probability method is recommended to define the probability range of typical curves, so that the production risk can be accurately evaluated.

Key words: shale gas, production decline, type curves, model, productivity evaluation

白玉湖, 陈桂华, 徐兵祥, 冯汝勇, 陈岭. 页岩气产量递减典型曲线模型及对比研究[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2016, 21(5): 96-102.

Bai Yuhu, Chen Guihua, Xu Bingxiang, Feng Ruyong, Chen Ling. Comparison of typical curve models for shale gas production decline prediction[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2016, 21(5): 96-102.

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