非常规油气开发经济评价方法研究与应用

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7703.2025.01.014

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目前我国石油公司正在全力推进非常规油气开发的探索与应用实践，非常规油气开发的特殊性使其经济评价有不同于常规油气经济评价的需求和任务。为此，在分析非常规油气开发特征基础上，梳理了非常规油气开发对经济评价的个性化需求，提出了非常规油气开发经济评价的任务与原则。非常规油气开发经济评价一要坚持全生命周期优化理念，突出一体化统筹管理和评价；二要建立一体化优化联动模型，通过倒逼机制推动方案优化。同时，提出了搭建快速经济评价模型和图版、全生命周期联动和对标分析以及风险分析等3 类各具特点的非常规油气开发经济评价方法。在非常规项目方案优化和地质工程一体化优化设计时，建议采用搭建快速评价模型和图版的评价方法；在编制非常规项目全生命周期开发方案时，建议采用全生命周期联动和对标分析方法；对于风险较大、不确定性强的非常规项目（例如勘探阶段的项目），需要采用风险分析方法。此外，对于这3类经济评价方法，分别提出了改进和提升方向。

关键词: 非常规, 油气开发, 经济评价, 地质工程经济一体化, 协同优化, 风险分析

Abstract: At present, China’s petroleum companies are fully promoting the exploration and application of unconventional oil and gas development. The particularity of unconventional oil and gas development makes its economic evaluation different from that of conventional oil and gas economic evaluation.Therefore, based on the analysis of the characteristics of unconventional oil and gas development, the individual demand for economic evaluation of unconventional oil and gas development is sorted out, and the tasks and principles of economic evaluation of unconventional oil and gas development are put forward.First, the economic evaluation of unconventional oil and gas development should adhere to the whole life cycle optimization concept and highlight the integrated management and evaluation.Second,it is necessary to establish an integrated optimization linkage model and promote program optimization through the backforcing mechanism.Then,three kinds of economic evaluation methods of unconventional oil and gas development are put forward, which are quick economic evaluation model and chart, whole life cycle linkage and benchmarking analysis, and risk analysis.In the optimization of unconventional project scheme and integrated optimization design of geological engineering,it is suggested to build a rapid evaluation model and map evaluation method.It is recommended to adopt the methods of linkage and benchmarking analysis in the preparation of the whole life cycle development scheme of unconventional projects.For non-conventional projects with high risk and uncertainty (such as projects in the exploration phase),a risk analysis method is required.In addition,for these three kinds of economic evaluation methods, the improvement and upgrading direction are proposed respectively.

Key words: unconventional;oil and gas development, economic evaluation, economic integration of geological engineering, cooperative optimization, risk analysis

中图分类号:

TE92

胡青, 张宝娟, 陈程, 张蔓, 王祥, 曲德斌, 丁艳, 王剑锋, 秦基超, 姜关锋. 非常规油气开发经济评价方法研究与应用[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2025, 30(1): 178-190.

Hu Qing, Zhang Baojuan, Chen Cheng, Zhang man, Wang Xiang, Qu Debin, Ding Yan, Wang Jianfeng, Qin Jinchao, Jiang Guanfeng. Research and application of economic evaluation methods for unconventional oil and gas development[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2025, 30(1): 178-190.

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