强非均质性断陷湖盆优质烃源岩总有机碳预测及对成藏的控制作用——以东濮凹陷葛岗集地区为例

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7703.2025.06.014

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 东濮凹陷葛岗集地区沙河街组优质烃源岩分布非均质性极强，传统测井方法难以精确识别和预测，严重制约了洼陷区油气勘探成效。据此，结合地化数据与测井响应特征，本研究基于随机森林算法构建了高精度TOC预测模型，实现了强非均质地质条件下烃源岩总有机碳（TOC）的有效预测，揭示了薄层优质烃源岩的分布规律及其对油气成藏的控制作用。结果表明，研究区优质烃源岩以灰黑色页岩为主，有机质丰度高、类型好，但单层厚度薄、纵横向分布变化快、测井响应复杂，导致传统方法识别精度不足。随机森林算法通过融合多类测井参数，显著提升了对复杂岩性组合中有机质非均质分布的预测能力。预测结果显示，研究区优质烃源岩主要分布于沙河街组三段下亚段（Es₃^下）底部和沙河街组四段上亚段（Es₄^上）中上部，且在近洼—深洼区呈现自西向东、自南向北厚度逐渐增大的趋势。优质烃源岩的分布对油气成藏具有明显控制作用，表现出典型的“近源成藏”特征，高产油气层及油气显示层段均分布于优质烃源岩附近，且油气富集程度与优质烃源岩厚度密切相关。该研究成果为东濮凹陷洼陷带的油气勘探部署提供了重要的地质依据。

关键词: 优质烃源岩, 非均质性, 随机森林, 控藏作用, 沙河街组, 东濮凹陷

Abstract: The high-quality source rocks in the Shahejie Formation of the Gegangji area, Dongpu Sag, exhibit extremely strong distribution heterogeneity. Conventional logging methods struggle to accurately identify and predict their spatial distribution, which significantly hinders the effectiveness of oil and gas exploration in the sag zone. In response, this study integrates geochemical data with logging response characteristics and employs a random forest algorithm to develop a high-precision TOC prediction model. This model achieves effective prediction of total organic carbon (TOC) content in highly heterogeneous geological conditions, revealing the distribution patterns of thinlayer high-quality source rocks and their controlling effect on hydrocarbon accumulation. The results indicate that the high-quality source rocks in the study area are predominantly gray-black shales with high organic matter abundance and favorable kerogen types. However, their thin single-layer thickness, rapid vertical and lateral variations, and complex logging responses lead to insufficient identification accuracy using traditional methods. The random forest algorithm significantly improves the prediction capability of heterogeneous organic matter distribution in complex lithological associations by integrating multiple types of logging parameters. Prediction results show that high-quality source rocks in the study area are mainly distributed at the bottom of the lower sub-member of the third member of the Shahejie Formation (Es₃^l) and the middle-upper part of the upper sub-member of the fourth member (Es₄^u). Moreover, their thickness gradually increases from west to east and from south to north in the near-sag to deep-sag areas. The distribution of high-quality source rocks exhibits a clear controlling effect on hydrocarbon accumulation, demonstrating typical“near-source accumulation”characteristics. High-yield oil and gas reservoirs as well as hydrocarbon-bearing intervals are all located near high-quality source rocks, and the degree of hydrocarbon enrichment is closely related to the thickness of these rocks. This research provides an important geological basis for oil and gas exploration planning in the sag zone of the Dongpu Sag.

Key words: High-quality source rock, Heterogeneity, Random Forest, Controlling effect on hydrocarbon accumulation, Shahejie Formation, Dongpu Sag

中图分类号:

TE122

高永涛, 李路, 郭栋, 宋晓航, 潘永帅, 徐田武. 强非均质性断陷湖盆优质烃源岩总有机碳预测及对成藏的控制作用——以东濮凹陷葛岗集地区为例[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2025, 30(6): 201-214.

Gao Yongtao, Li Lu, Guo Dong, Song Xiaohang, Pan Yongshuai, Xu Tianwu. Prediction of total organic carbon in high-quality source rocks and its control on hydrocarbon accumulation in a strongly heterogeneous rift lacustrine basin: A case study from the Gegangji area, Dongpu Sag[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2025, 30(6): 201-214.

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