中国石油勘探 ›› 2019, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (5): 553-559.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-7703.2019.05.002

• 勘探战略 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球页岩油发展及展望

杨雷1 ,金之钧2,3   

  1. 1《国际石油经济》编委会; 2 页岩油气富集机理与有效开发国家重点实验室; 3 中国石化石油勘探开发研究院
  • 出版日期:2019-09-12 发布日期:2019-09-12
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院学部项目“中国页岩油发展战略研究”(KKBE170026)。

Global shale oil development and prospects

Yang Lei1, Jin Zhijun2,3   

  1. 1 Editorial Department of International Petroleum Economics; 2 State Key Laboratory of Shale Oil and Gas Enrichment Mechanism and Effective Development; 3 Sinopec Petroleum Exploration & Production Research Institute
  • Online:2019-09-12 Published:2019-09-12
  • Supported by:
     

摘要: 全球页岩油发展态势对中国页岩油发展具有重要参考意义,在系统收集相关数据、资料和调研的基础上, 通过分析美国页岩油发展历程和关键要点,包括其发展历程、降本增效与相关技术、发展模式、经济效益、扶持政策等, 提出页岩油发展模式不同于传统能源,其更加依赖技术进步、成本下降及金融支持,与新能源发展模式具有一定的相 似性,早期发展需要更多支持。美国页岩油的爆发式增长,根本驱动力在于地质理论的突破和开发技术的进步,关键是 页岩油开发成本的快速下降;不仅得益于技术进步,也得益于商业模式的创新。全球页岩油资源丰富,北美、阿根廷、 俄罗斯、中国等很多国家和地区都呈现了良好的发展势头。未来全球页岩油产量将继续保持增长,有望在2025 年后 超过1000×104bbl 日产能力。结合中国页岩油基本特征,指出中国应将页岩油作为战略接替资源,加大科技研发投入, 给予扶持政策,创造良好条件吸引更多投资,力争在“十四五”期间实现规模性开发。

 

关键词: 页岩油, 发展模式, 全球资源, 战略, 展望

Abstract: The development of global shale oil is an important reference to the development of shale oil in China. After systematically collecting data and researching, and analyzing the development history and key points of US shale oil, including the development process, how to reduce cost and increase production, technologies, development models, economics, and supporting policies, it is found that the development model of shale oil is different from conventional energy, and it is more dependent on technological progress, cost reduction and financial support, and similar to new energy development models to some extent, so development in the stage early needs more supports. The explosive increase of shale oil in the United States is driven by breakthroughs in geological theory and advances in development technologies. The most important is the rapid reduction of the cost for developing shale oil. This not only thanks to technological advances, but also is the result of innovative business models. The global shale oil resources are abundant, and many countries and regions, such as North America, Argentina, Russia, and China, all had good start. In the future, global shale oil production will continue to grow and is expected to exceed 1000×104bbl/d after 2025. According to the characteristics of shale oil in China, shale oil would be strategic successive resources in China. To increase investment in science and technology research and development, give supporting policies, and create favorable conditions to attract more investment will ensure the large-scale development of shale oil during the 14th Five-Year Plan.

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